Friday 17 April 2015

Predicted losses and gains for the UK General Election by Electoral Calculus

Predicted Gains & Losses Table

PartyGainsLossesChange2010 SeatsPred Seats
See also the full majority-sorted list of seats, including vulnerable.

List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaChange  MP as at 2010
Amber ValleyDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Nigel Mills
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Fuller
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkSouthwarkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Hughes
Berwick-upon-TweedNorthumberlandCONgain fromLIB: Alan Beith
Birmingham YardleyBirminghamLABgain fromLIB: John Hemming
Blackpool North and CleveleysLancashireLABgain fromCON: Paul Maynard
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: David Ward
Brent CentralBrentLABgain fromLIB: Sarah Teather
Brentford and IsleworthHounslowLABgain fromCON: Mary Macleod
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Simon Kirby
BroxtoweNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Anna Soubry
BurnleyLancashireLABgain fromLIB: Gordon Birtwistle
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: David Nuttall
CambridgeCambridgeshireLABgain fromLIB: Julian Huppert
CarlisleCumbriaLABgain fromCON: John Stevenson
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Tom Brake
CheadleEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLIB: Mark Hunter
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONgain fromLIB: Martin Horwood
Chester, City ofCheshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen Mosley
ChippenhamWiltshireCONgain fromLIB: Duncan Hames
ClactonEssexUKIPgain fromCON: Douglas Carswell
CorbyNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Louise Bagshaw
Cornwall NorthCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Dan Rogerson
Croydon CentralCroydonLABgain fromCON: Gavin Barwell
DewsburyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Simon Reevell
Dorset Mid and Poole NorthDorsetCONgain fromLIB: Annette Brooke
EastbourneEast SussexCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Lloyd
EastleighHampshireCONgain fromLIB: Christopher Huhne
Enfield NorthEnfieldLABgain fromCON: Nick de Bois
ErewashDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Jessica Lee
GloucesterGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Richard Graham
Halesowen and Rowley RegisBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: James Morris
Hastings and RyeEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Amber Rudd
HendonBarnetLABgain fromCON: Matthew Offord
Hornsey and Wood GreenHaringeyLABgain fromLIB: Lynne Featherstone
HoveEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Mike Weatherley
IpswichSuffolkLABgain fromCON: Ben Gummer
KeighleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Kris Hopkins
KingswoodBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Chris Skidmore
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireLABgain fromCON: Eric Ollerenshaw
LincolnLincolnshireLABgain fromCON: Karl McCartney
LoughboroughLeicestershireLABgain fromCON: Nicky Morgan
Manchester WithingtonCentral ManchesterLABgain fromLIB: John Leech
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireLABgain fromCON: David Morris
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Michael Ellis
Norwich SouthNorfolkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Wright
NuneatonWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Marcus Jones
PendleLancashireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Stephenson
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colville
PudseyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Stuart Andrew
RedcarTeessideLABgain fromLIB: Ian Swales
SherwoodNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Mark Spencer
SolihullCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLIB: Lorely Burt
Somerton and FromeSomersetCONgain fromLIB: David Heath
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Gilbert
St IvesCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Andrew George
Stockton SouthTeessideLABgain fromCON: James Wharton
StroudGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Neil Carmichael
Sutton and CheamSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Paul Burstow
Taunton DeaneSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Jeremy Browne
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Jackie Doyle-Price
TorbayDevonCONgain fromLIB: Adrian Sanders
Warrington SouthCheshireLABgain fromCON: David Mowat
Warwickshire NorthWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Dan Byles
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCON: Peter Aldous
Weaver ValeCheshireLABgain fromCON: Graham Evans
WellsSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Tessa Munt
Wirral WestMerseysideLABgain fromCON: Esther McVey
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Paul Uppal
WorcesterHereford and WorcestershireLABgain fromCON: Robin Walker
Brecon and RadnorshirePowysCONgain fromLIB: Roger Williams
Cardiff CentralSouth GlamorganLABgain fromLIB: Jenny Willott
Cardiff NorthSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Jonathan Evans
Aberdeen NorthGrampianNATgain fromLAB: Frank Doran
Aberdeen SouthGrampianNATgain fromLAB: Anne Begg
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianNATgain fromLIB: Sir Robert Smith
Airdrie and ShottsGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: Pamela Nash
Argyll and ButeArgyll and ButeNATgain fromLIB: Alan Reid
Ayr Carrick and CumnockAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Sandra Osborne
Ayrshire CentralAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Brian Donohoe
Ayrshire North and ArranAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Katy Clark
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersNATgain fromLIB: Michael Moore
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossHighlandNATgain fromLIB: John Thurso
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: Gregg McClymont
Dumfries and GallowayDumfries and GallowayNATgain fromLAB: Russell Brown
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDumfries and GallowayNATgain fromCON: David Mundell
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaNATgain fromLIB: Jo Swinson
Dundee WestTaysideNATgain fromLAB: James McGovern
Dunfermline and West FifeFifeNATgain fromLAB: Thomas Docherty
East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Michael McCann
East LothianEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Fiona O'Donnell
Edinburgh EastEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Sheila Gilmore
Edinburgh North and LeithEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Mark Lazarowicz
Edinburgh SouthEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Ian Murray
Edinburgh South WestEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Alistair Darling
Edinburgh WestEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLIB: Michael Crockart
FalkirkCentralNATgain fromLAB: Eric Joyce
Fife North EastFifeNATgain fromLIB: Sir Menzies Campbell
Glasgow CentralGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: Anas Sarwar
Glasgow NorthGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: Ann McKechin
Glasgow North WestGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: John Robertson
Glasgow SouthGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: Tom Harris
GordonGrampianNATgain fromLIB: Malcolm Bruce
InverclydeGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: David Cairns
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyHighlandNATgain fromLIB: Danny Alexander
Kilmarnock and LoudounAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Cathy Jamieson
Lanark and Hamilton EastAyrshire and LanarkNATgain fromLAB: Jimmy Hood
Linlithgow and East FalkirkEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Michael Connarty
LivingstonEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: Graeme Morrice
MidlothianEdinburgh areaNATgain fromLAB: David Hamilton
Ochil and South PerthshireCentralNATgain fromLAB: Gordon Banks
Orkney and ShetlandOrkney and ShetlandNATgain fromLIB: Alistair Carmichael
Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGlasgow areaNATgain fromLAB: James Sheridan
Ross Skye and LochaberHighlandNATgain fromLIB: Charles Kennedy
StirlingCentralNATgain fromLAB: Anne McGuire

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

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