Green Party areas of strength and weakness by Electoral Calculus

Let's look at the Greens to see what geographic variation their support has. Similarly the UKIP, the semi-inter quartile range approximately doubles in width from 1.7% (old range from 5.1% to 6.8%) to 3.1% (new range from 4.1% to 7.2%). This shows that the new model allows for more geographic variation than the straight STM.

The top ten Green seats for the old and new models are shown below:

Seat (old model)	Region	Pred Green votes
Brighton Pavilion	South East	35%
Norwich South	East Anglia	20%
Cambridge	East Anglia	13%
Lewisham Deptford	South London	12%
Leeds West	Yorkshire	11%
Lancaster and Fleetwood	Lancashire	10%
Hackney North and Stoke Newington	North London	10%
Hove	South East	10%
Brighton Kemptown	South East	10%
Huddersfield	Yorkshire	10%

Seat (new model)	Region	Pred Green votes
Brighton Pavilion	South East	38%
Norwich South	East Anglia	24%
Cambridge	East Anglia	18%
Hackney North and Stoke Newington	North London	16%
Lewisham Deptford	South London	16%
Oxford East	West	16%
Bristol West	West	15%
Hackney South and Shoreditch	North London	15%
Bristol South	West	15%
Bristol East	West	14%

The strongest Green seats are now more strong than previous estimates, with Green support generally about 5% higher. The strong seats are more concentrated in the south of England than before. We can see the regional breakdown in the table below.

Region	Old Model	New Model
West	6.5%	9.0%
South West	6.1%	7.8%
South London	6.9%	7.6%
North London	6.6%	7.5%
South East	7.1%	7.2%
East Anglia	7.2%	7.1%
Yorkshire	6.7%	7.1%
South	6.0%	6.6%
Greater Manchester	6.3%	6.1%
Essex	6.1%	5.8%
Humberside	6.3%	5.6%
Lancashire	5.5%	5.5%
East Midlands	6.0%	5.2%
North	6.1%	5.0%
Severn	6.0%	4.8%
West Midlands	5.7%	4.0%
East Scotland	3.2%	3.4%
Wales	5.3%	3.4%
West Scotland	2.7%	2.8%

Strong regions for the Greens are in the West/South West, London and the South East. Weaker regions for the Greens are Scotland, Wales and the north of England.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_shapedstm.html SOURCE