Monday 27 April 2015

TNS BMRB - Momentum is still with the SNP but many remain undecided

London - 27 April - A new TNS poll in Scotland shows no sign of the gap between the SNP and Labour decreasing, with voter intention as follows:
  • SNP 54% (+2), Lab 22% (-2), Con 13% (0), LD 6% (0), Green 2% (-1), UKIP 2% (+1)
The survey of 1003 adults in Scotland reveals that over two thirds (67%) say they are certain to vote. This is higher than the rest of the UK, where 62% said they would definitely vote in the most recent TNS UK-wide poll. Indeed, SNP supporters are most likely to say they are certain to vote (82%).
Among those certain to vote, almost one in three (29%) remain undecided, a much higher proportion than was evident at this stage of the run-up to the independence referendum.
The survey also asked respondents who they thought would try to get the best deal for Scotland at Westminster. Over two fifths (42%) favoured Nicola Sturgeon, with her opponents some way behind: Murphy 8%, Cameron 7%, Salmond 6%, Miliband 3%. 
Amongst Labour supporters, 41% said Murphy and 14% chose Miliband to get the best deal for Scotland. Amongst SNP supporters, 81% selected Sturgeon compared to 13% for Alex Salmond.
The survey also asked respondents for their preferred outcome for the Election on 7th May and over a third (35%) preferred a Labour government compared to 16% who favoured a Conservative government. Amongst SNP supporters, almost half (48%) would prefer a Labour government and a quarter (25%) would like to see a Labour-led coalition.
Commenting, Tom Costley, Head of TNS Scotland said, “Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP appear to be going from strength to strength.
“With more people saying they are definitely going to vote than is the case elsewhere in Britain, it suggests that the Scots are more engaged following the independence referendum. It remains to be seen what impact the 29% who claim to be undecided as to which way to vote will have on the total number of Westminster seats gained by the SNP.”
Notes to editors:
The full data tables are available here.
1. A sample of 1003 adults aged 18+ was interviewed across Scotland over the period 1st -19th April 2015.
2. To ensure the sample was representative of the adult population of Scotland (aged 18+), it was weighted to match population profile estimates in the analysis. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of vote from the 2010 General Election (as recorded in House of Commons Library Research Paper 10/36 18 May 2010), and turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2011 Holyrood election (as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results).
3. All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and quota sampling.

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