Latest LIVE Electoral Calculus Prediction for the UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015

Current Prediction: Labour short 40 of majority

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	33.4%	275
LAB	29.7%	258	32.3%	286
LIB	23.6%	57	9.5%	17
UKIP	3.2%	0	13.9%	2
Green	1.0%	1	5.0%	1
SNP	1.7%	6	3.8%	48
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	3
Minor	3.4%	0	1.6%	0
N.Ire		18		18

Prediction based on opinion polls from 08 Mar 2015 to 04 Apr 2015, sampling 16,372 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority	23%
Conservative majority	19%
Lab/Nat coalition	14%
Con/Nat coalition	13%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	11%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	10%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	9%
No overall control	2%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.