Another forecast has been released from the people at
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but
that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 300 seats.
However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of
information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK
elections,
we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast.
The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key
outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each
party with
90% uncertainty intervals.
- And now the party forecast...
- Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss possible. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
- Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
- Liberal Democrats. Fading slightly. Seat loss almost certain.
- SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely.
- Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
- Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
- UKIP. Rising slightly. Seat gain very likely.
Conservatives |
249 |
300 |
352 |
-6 |
Labour |
250 |
298 |
344 |
40 |
Liberal Democrats |
9 |
20 |
34 |
-37 |
SNP |
5 |
8 |
13 |
2 |
Plaid Cymru |
1 |
2 |
3 |
-1 |
Greens |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
UKIP |
0 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1
Conservatives |
249 |
300 |
352 |
-6 |
Labour |
250 |
298 |
344 |
40 |
Liberal Democrats |
9 |
20 |
34 |
-37 |
SNP |
5 |
8 |
13 |
2 |
Plaid Cymru |
1 |
2 |
3 |
-1 |
Greens |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
UKIP |
0 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
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