Monday 15 September 2014

The Future Of the UK? - Survation Polled English, Welsh & Scottish Voters On Attitudes To A "Disunited Kingdon"

Summary of key points:
  • Voting intention
    • For the whole of GB (with change in brackets since last poll 29th June): CON 31% (+4), LAB 35% (-1), LD 8 (+1), UKIP 19 (-3), OTHER 8 (-2)
    • For England and Wales (with change in brackets compared to whole of GB above): CON 33% (+2), LAB 34% (-1), LD 8% (NC), UKIP 20% (+2), OTHER 5% (-3)
  • What’s clear from these results is that English and Welsh people do are not keen on Scotland leaving the UK.

    ==> 62% say they want a ‘No’ vote compared to 13% who want a ‘Yes’. 48% say they would be ‘upset’ with a Yes vote to only 12% who would be ‘happy’.
  • Our results also suggest that English and Welsh residents feel Scotland gets a good deal out of the UK:
    • 61% do not think that North Sea oil justifies Scotland receiving more in public spending per head compared to 19% who do.
    • 74% think it is unfair that Scottish students do not pay tuition fees to Scottish universities while students from the rest of the UK do compared to only 13% who think it is fair.
  • This may explain why 40% of English & Welsh think Scotland would be worse off if it were independent compared to only 13% who think it would be better off.
  • The results also suggest that in the event of Scotland becoming independent, the rest of Great Britain wants them to be treated like any other foreign country:
    • 61% say the UK should not agree to a currency union with an independent Scotland compared to 21% who say they should.
    • 59% say Trident nuclear weapons should be removed from an independent Scotland compared to only 21% who say they should be shared
    • 48% say there should be a guarded border between England and Scotland if Scotland joins the Schengen area.
    • 77% say the UK should give no financial help to an independent Scotland compared to just 12% who say it should
  • What about the impact of a ‘Yes’ vote on Westminster?
    • 42% of English & Welsh people think it would be a bad thing if Labour found it more difficult to form a government compared to 23% who think it would be a good thing. Even 30% of those who say they will vote Conservative think it would be ‘bad’ for the rest of the UK if Labour lost 40 MPs compared to 45% of Conservatives who think it would be ‘good’.
    • 56% do not think the 2015 general election should be delayed if Scotland becomes independent compared to 31%.
    • There was not a majority for any party leader to resign in the event of Scottish independence.
  • 40% of English and Welsh approve of plans for ‘devo-max’ compared to 22% who disapprove. However, 43% say that Gordon Brown announced these plans as a ‘panicked’ response to polls suggesting Scotland might vote ‘Yes’ to independence and only 28% say that it is a sensible option planned for some time.
  • 57% of English and Welsh think that Scottish MPs should be blocked from voting on matters that only affect the English at Westminster compared to 26% who think Scottish MPs should be allowed to vote on English matters. It is perhaps unsurprising then that 47% of English and Welsh support the setting up of an English Parliament compared to just 9% who oppose.
  • While respondents were most likely to say Salmond had come out best from the independence campaign than Cameron, Miliband or Clegg the clear winner was ‘None of the above’ at 49%.
  • The independence campaign hasn’t had a huge impact on cultural relations between Scotland and the UK. Just 11% say they are less likely to support Andy Murray, 12% less likely to celebrate Hogmanay and 10% less likely to drink Scottish whisky.- we'd view that as a pretty mild set of figures give the survey's structure.
This service was conducted on the 12th September.  Full data tables can be viewed here:

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