Wednesday 24 September 2014

UK General Election 2015 Forecast

This report was generated on 24 September 2014 at 08:40. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 301 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Fading slightly. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
    • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 248 295 345 -11
Labour 256 301 347 43
Liberal Democrats 10 20 32 -37
SNP 6 10 15 4
Plaid Cymru 0 2 2 -1
Greens 0 1 1 0
UKIP 0 2 5 2
Other 1 1 1 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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