CLEETHORPES VOTE SHARE 2014 (Will this be the next TORY defector seat?)

Who is the next Conservative defector from this list? <<< link to list which has two Tory MPs who have already defected and a list of more who may in the future

  Martin Vickers Conservative MP would he be the next to defect?

Totals for local elections taken in Cleethorpes constituency, NO election happened in North Lincolnshire so no numbers for Barton & Ferry

UKIP 6,528 - 36.1%
Conservatives 5,773 - 31.9%
Labour 4,452 - 24.6%
Lib Dems 349 - 1.9%
Others 990 - 5.5%
votes cast 18,092
Ward which are in the Cleethorpes constituency are highlighted in BLUE.

		Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	BNP	TUSC	Ind (1)	Ind (2)
North East Lincolnshire	Croft Baker	352	1,031	61	885			104	424
	East Marsh		369	907	422	46		22
	Freshney	394	631	85	763	73		32
	Haverstoe	1,403	547	133	939	86
	Heneage	408	779	108	918	97		43
	Humberston & New Waltham	1,062	533		1,521
	Immingham	787	960		952	112		49
	Park	614	577	867	796	165		42
	Scartho	960	549	179	1,233
	Sidney Sussex	369	584	79	891			126	89
	South	200	660	97	690	52			238
	Waltham	889	389	76	664
	West Marsh		434		325			32	247	135
	Wolds	911	408		676
	Yarborough	387	717	175	957			42
Totals, 2014		8,736	9,168	2,767	12,632	631		492	1,133
%		24.57	25.78	7.78	35.52	1.77		1.38	3.19
Totals, 2010		21,648	18,921	17,905	6,105		2,423		300
%		32.17	28.11	26.60	9.07		3.60		0.45
Changes		-7.60	-2.33	-18.82	26.45	1.77	-3.60	1.38	2.74

 MP: Martin Vickers  (CON)
County/Area: (Humberside)
Electorate: 70,214
Turnout: 64.04%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,939	42.12%	35.31%
LAB	14,641	32.56%	40.49%
LIB	8,192	18.22%	2.63%
UKIP	3,194	7.10%	19.75%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.82%
CON Majority	4,298	9.56%	Pred Maj 5.18%

1 http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Cleethorpes

Implied and predicted ward-by-ward votes for Cleethorpes

This table shows the (estimated) general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Cleethorpes, as well as the predicted election result ward-by-ward.

Cleethorpes			Est. 2010 General Election Results					Predicted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	Other Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	Other Votes	Total Votes
North East Lincolnshire	Croft Baker	8,938	1,748	2,273	1,377	326	5,724	1,465	2,790	199	1,270	5,724
North East Lincolnshire	Haverstoe	7,740	2,355	1,169	1,227	206	4,957	1,974	1,676	177	1,130	4,957
North East Lincolnshire	Humberston and New Waltham	8,373	2,114	1,217	1,690	342	5,363	1,772	1,850	244	1,497	5,363
North East Lincolnshire	Immingham	8,537	1,748	2,162	750	807	5,467	1,465	2,489	108	1,404	5,466
North East Lincolnshire	Sidney Sussex	8,993	1,428	2,408	1,587	336	5,759	1,197	2,971	229	1,362	5,759
North East Lincolnshire	Waltham	5,432	1,709	831	758	180	3,478	1,433	1,159	109	777	3,478
North East Lincolnshire	Wolds	5,522	1,732	860	732	213	3,537	1,452	1,181	106	798	3,537
North Lincolnshire	Barton	8,224	2,652	2,012	49	553	5,266	2,223	2,179	7	857	5,266
North Lincolnshire	Ferry	8,455	3,453	1,709	21	232	5,415	2,895	1,913	3	604	5,415
	Total	70,214	18,939	14,641	8,191	3,195	44,965	15,876	18,208	1,182	9,699	44,965

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.