PETERBOROUGH VOTE SHARE 2014 (Will this be the next TORY defector seat?)

Who is the next Conservative defector from this list? <<< link to list which has two Tory MPs who have already defected and a list of more who may in the future

 Stewart Jackson Conservative MP would he be the next to defect?

Peterborough Euro 2014 vote share (difference from 2010 General Election)

UKIP 15,379 - 33.5% (+26.8%)
Conservatives 11,744 - 25.6% (-14.8%)
Labour 11,526 - 25.1% (-4.4%)
Greens 2,597 - 5.6%
LibDems 2.089 - 4.5% (-15.1%)
Others 2,578 - 5.7%

Votes cast 45,913

Vote share for Local Elections held on the same day

Highlighted in blue are the wards which fall under the Peterborough constituency

Vote totals for them

Labour 8,807 - 31.7%
Conservatives 8,120 - 29.3%
UKIP 4,912 - 17.7%
LibDems 2,419 - 8.7%
Greens 754 - 2.7%
Others 2,732 - 9.9%

Total votes cast 27,744

		Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	BNP	TUSC	Ind (1)	Ind (2)	Ind (3)	Eng Dem
Peterborough	Bretton North	520	700	195	782
	Central	785	2,044			320
	Dogsthorpe	228	610
	East	991	805		614	133
	Eye & Thorney	1,008	327		763	180		81
	Fletton & Woodston	739	699		591	165		39	157
	Glinton & Wittering	829	205		464				379
	Newborough	263	94						570
	North	128	372						857
	Orton Longueville	715	672		755	144		99
	Orton Waterville	1,169	373		780	206		44
	Orton with Hampton	937	636	267		284			368
	Park	1,191	1,410	74	283	121		12
	Paston	443	641		752
	Stanground Central	957	811									610
	Walton	228	195	617	495
	Werrington North	362	242	69				67	1,145
	Werrington South	491	230	1,174	521
	West	1,482	1,137	290	702
Totals, 2014		13,466	12,203	2,686	7,502	1,553		342	3,476			610
%		31.21	28.29	6.23	17.39	3.60		0.79	8.06			1.41
Totals, 2010		29,536	18,064	6,816		1,053			5,230			2,355
%		44.91	27.47	10.36		1.60			7.95			3.58
Changes		-13.70	0.82	-4.14	17.39	2.00		0.79	0.10			-2.17

Electoral Calculus is predicting a Labour gain

  Prediction: LAB gain from CON 

MP: Stewart Jackson  (CON)
County/Area: (East Anglia)
Electorate: 70,316
Turnout: 63.89%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,133	40.36%	33.77%
LAB	13,272	29.54%	37.87%
LIB	8,816	19.62%	2.69%
UKIP	3,007	6.69%	19.97%
OTH	1,699	3.78%	5.69%
CON Majority	4,861	10.82%	Pred Maj 4.10%

This table shows the (estimated) general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Peterborough, as well as the predicted election result ward-by-ward.

Peterborough			Est. 2010 General Election Results					Predicted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2010	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	Other Votes	Total Votes	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	Other Votes	Total Votes
Peterborough	Bretton North	5,578	1,294	1,019	887	365	3,565	1,083	1,365	122	996	3,566
Peterborough	Bretton South	1,842	740	265	61	110	1,176	619	326	8	222	1,175
Peterborough	Central	7,022	1,690	2,423	133	239	4,485	1,414	2,561	18	491	4,484
Peterborough	Dogsthorpe	5,760	762	733	2,110	74	3,679	638	1,422	289	1,330	3,679
Peterborough	East	6,757	1,965	1,483	311	559	4,318	1,644	1,692	43	940	4,319
Peterborough	Eye and Thorney	3,864	1,263	380	490	335	2,468	1,057	603	67	741	2,468
Peterborough	Newborough	1,811	550	161	159	286	1,156	460	241	22	433	1,156
Peterborough	North	3,731	606	666	397	715	2,384	507	822	54	1,000	2,383
Peterborough	Park	6,236	1,879	1,550	199	358	3,986	1,572	1,719	27	667	3,985
Peterborough	Paston	5,053	1,454	956	293	526	3,229	1,217	1,130	40	843	3,230
Peterborough	Ravensthorpe	4,721	1,138	1,382	365	132	3,017	952	1,559	50	455	3,016
Peterborough	Walton	3,519	786	331	970	161	2,248	658	673	133	785	2,249
Peterborough	Werrington North	4,734	963	581	879	601	3,024	806	905	120	1,192	3,023
Peterborough	Werrington South	4,293	974	342	1,427	0	2,743	815	834	196	898	2,743
Peterborough	West	5,395	2,068	999	136	245	3,448	1,730	1,160	19	539	3,448
	Total	70,316	18,132	13,271	8,817	4,706	44,929	15,172	17,012	1,208	11,532	44,924

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.